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Pandemijski izazov: kako razdvojiti šok ponude i šok potražnje u uvjetima bolesti COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Lovorka Grgurić

    (Hrvatska narodna banka, Hrvatska)

  • Ozana Nadoveza Jelić

    (Hrvatska narodna banka, Hrvatska & Ekonomski fakultet, Sveučilište u Zagrebu, Hrvatska)

  • Nina Pavić

    (Hrvatska narodna banka, Hrvatska)

Abstract

Makroekonomski šok izazvan pandemijom bolesti COVID-19 rezultirao je godišnjom stopom pada BDP-a od rekordnih 8,1% u 2020. godini. Takva su kretanja rezultat makroekonomskog šoka bez presedana, koji je istodobno utjecao i na ponudu i na potražnju. S jedne strane, Vladine mjere dizajnirane za suzbijanje širenja virusa nametnule su do sada neviđena ograničenja na strani ponude. S druge strane, neizvjesnost vezana uz pandemiju utjecala je na potrošnju i domaćih i inozemnih potrošača, što se odrazilo na domaću i inozemnu potražnju, pri čemu je Hrvatska posebno pogođena smanjenom turističkom potražnjom. Tako velik šok izazov je za procjenu potencijalnog BDP-a, neopazive varijable koju je teško sa sigurnošću procijeniti i u stabilnim gospodarskim uvjetima. Ključno pitanje na koje je potrebno odgovoriti pri procjeni potencijalnog BDP-a u uvjetima koronakrize odnosi se na raščlambu šoka na permanentni dio i dio izravno uzrokovan mjerama zatvaranja (trajni i privremeni šok ponude) te privremeni dio (šok potražnje). Iako se na to pitanje ne može sa sigurnošću odgovoriti, u ovom se radu opisuje nekoliko mogućih metodoloških rješenja i kalibracija za procjenu potencijalnog BDP-a u uvjetima pandemije koronavirusa te analiziraju osnovne karakteristike procjena za Hrvatsku.

Suggested Citation

  • Lovorka Grgurić & Ozana Nadoveza Jelić & Nina Pavić, 2021. "Pandemijski izazov: kako razdvojiti šok ponude i šok potražnje u uvjetima bolesti COVID-19," Istraživanja 66, Hrvatska narodna banka, Hrvatska.
    • Handle: RePEc:hnb:istraz:66
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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