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戦後期ロシアの非公式経済成長：歴史統計，1960－1990

Author

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  • 志田, 仁完

Abstract

本稿では，機密解除されたアーカイブ家計調査資料（「ロシア国立経済文書館」所蔵）を活用し，戦後期ロシアの非公式経済を家計面から検証した．さらに，非公式経済の規模推計に基づき，ロシアGDP歴史統計を支出面から再評価した．公式・非公式GDPの再推計は次の点を明らかにしている．第1に，既存GDP推計において非公式GDPが適切に考慮されなかったため，1960－90年のロシア経済の規模が期間平均で6.5％～12.6％過小評価されていた．第2に，非公式GDPの名目シェアは趨勢的な縮小傾向を示した．第3に，非公式経済を考慮した場合，ロシアの実質経済成長は下方修正される．1961年を基準とするロシアの実質経済成長は，ソ連崩壊直前の1990年において15～39ポイント低下する．これは年率0.24～0.38％の成長率の低下に相当する．以上は，推計起点の名目GDPが最も過小評価されていること，名目・非公式GDPシェアが趨勢的に縮小したこと，そして，価格が計画的・硬直的に設定された公式経済部門よりも，より柔軟な価格調整機能を有する非公式経済において，価格上昇が著しいことに起因する．公式経済における不足は価格調整を伴わず，それが非公式経済に転嫁されたため，非公式経済成長は鈍化した．

Suggested Citation

  • 志田, 仁完, 2016. "戦後期ロシアの非公式経済成長：歴史統計，1960－1990," RRC Working Paper Series 56, Russian Research Center, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hit:rrcwps:56
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    File URL: https://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/hermes/ir/re/27819/RRC_WP_No56.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ロシア; ソ連; 非公式GDP; 非公式経済; 歴史統計;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-
    • N34 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: 1913-
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
    • P27 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects
    • P36 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Consumer Economics; Health; Education and Training; Welfare, Income, Wealth, and Poverty

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