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Estimation of Unobserved Dynamics of Individual Partisanship: A Bayesian Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Okabe, Tomohito
  • 岡部, 智人
  • Nogiwa, Daisuke

Abstract

Political party preference is a crucial element in the analysis of economics and political science. However, it is often di cult to investigate the dynamic properties of the individual partisanship due to inaccessibility to panel data. This study proposes a Bayesian approach for estimating Markov dynamics of individual-level partisanship with repeated cross-section data in which the history of respondents' choice of favored party cannot be observed. The proposed approach identifies individual heterogeneities that affect transitional patterns of partisanship, and replicates the dynamic patterns of individual partisan mobility. Using the proposed method with American survey data, the study shows that age, education and race significantly influence partisan dynamics among Americans for three decades from 1972.

Suggested Citation

  • Okabe, Tomohito & 岡部, 智人 & Nogiwa, Daisuke, 2017. "Estimation of Unobserved Dynamics of Individual Partisanship: A Bayesian Approach," Discussion Paper Series 655, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hit:hituec:655
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    File URL: https://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/hermes/ir/re/28394/DP655.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Party Identification; Repeated Cross-Section Data; Markov Chain; Bayesian Microeconometrics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • D39 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Other
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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