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パス・スルーの低下と為替レートの経常収支調整機能

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  • 岩壷, 健太郎

Abstract

①1980年代に経常収支赤字が問題となったときと異なり、90年代から今日に至る過程では、為替レートと交易条件(輸出価格/輸入価格)の相関が大幅に低下している。パス・スルー(為替レートの輸入価格に対する浸透効果)の低下は為替レートの支出転換効果を阻害するので、為替レートによる貿易調整能力が低下し、経常収支の調整に必要な為替レートの変動を大きくするといわれている。本章では、「新しい開放経済マクロモデル」を用いて、生産性の上昇や財政支出の増加といった外生的ショックが為替レートと経常収支に与える影響を分析し、パス・スルーの低下によってそれらの感応度がどう変化するのかを検討した。②恒久的な生産性の上昇は経常収支を悪化させ、ドル高を招く。一方、一時的な財政支出の増加は経常収支の悪化とドル安を導く。前者は90年代後半、後者は2000年代前半の状況と整合的な結果である。また、経常収支の調整に必要な為替レートの変動は、恒久的な外生的ショックに対してはパス・スルーの低下に伴い大きくなるが、一時的ショックに対してはパス・スルーの低下によって大きくなることはない。

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File URL: http://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/rs/bitstream/10086/13507/1/wp2005-19a.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University in its series CEI Working Paper Series with number 2005-19.

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Length: 18 p.
Date of creation: Mar 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hit:hitcei:2005-19

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