Estimating a change point in the long memory parameter
AbstractWe propose an estimator of change point in the long memory parameter d of an ARFIMA(p, d, q) process using the sup Wald test. We derive the consistency and the rate of convergence of the parameter. The convergence rate of our change point estimator depends on the magnitude of a shift. Furthermore, we obtain the limiting distribution of our change point estimator without depending on the distribution of the process. Therefore, we can construct the confidence interval of the change point. Simulations show the validity of the asymptotic theory of our estimator if the sample size is large enough. We apply our change point estimator to the yearly Nile river minimum time series.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University in its series Discussion Papers with number 2010-07.
Length: 19 p.
Date of creation: May 2010
Date of revision:
Break in persistence; long memory; change point;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-06-04 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2010-06-04 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2010-06-04 (Econometric Time Series)
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