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ダイナミック・マイクロシミュレーションモデルによる年金制度改革の貧困リスク改善効果分析—年金制度改正に関する政府案の評価と新しい改革案の提案—

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  • 稲垣, 誠一
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    Abstract

    人口の高齢化は日本にとって避けられない問題であり、年金制度改革は大きな論点となっている。2004年の年金制度改正では、高齢化社会における年金財政の持続に重点を置いた改正が行われたが、年金制度の重要な役割、すなわち、高齢期の貧困リスクへの対応が十分にできなくなったように思われる。年金財政の将来見通しは、財政検証という形で政府が実施しているが、所得分布のようなミクロの将来見通しは作成されていない。本稿は、日本社会のダイナミック・マイクロシミュレーションモデルである世帯情報解析モデル(INAHSIM)を用い、まず、現行制度の下で、貧困高齢者比率の将来推計を行うことによって高齢者の貧困問題の深刻さを明らかにした上で、2012年3月30日に閣議決定された「公的年金制度の財政基盤及び最低保証機能の強化のための国民年金法等の一部を改正する法律案」の貧困リスク改善効果の評価を試みる。シミュレーションの結果、高齢期の貧困リスクに関する政府案の改善効果は極めて限定的であることが明らかとなったことから、その解決のための二つの改革案を示すとともに、それらの新しい改革案の追加費用と貧困高齢者の削減効果を示す。

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    File URL: http://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/rs/bitstream/10086/22939/1/cis_dp550.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University in its series CIS Discussion paper series with number 550.

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    Length: 24p
    Date of creation: Apr 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:hit:cisdps:550

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