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Pass-through with low inflation and volatile exchange rates

Author

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  • Alexius, Annika

    (Dept. of Economics, Stockholm University)

  • Holmberg, Mikaela

    (Dept. of Economics, Stockholm University)

Abstract

As central banks struggle to boost inflation rates in the face of low global inflation and volatile foreign exchange markets, it has become particularly important to understand how inflation in open economies is affected by movements in exchange rates and foreign inflation. Using a time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR, we analyze the behavior of pass-through across time and in relation to macroeconomic variables. We find little support for the Taylor (2000) hypothesis that pass-through is lower when inflation is close to target. In our data, inflation rates are often below rather than above target, and pass-through does not appear to increase significantly at low inflation rates. Furthermore, inflation persistence is unrelated to pass-through. The pass-through of foreign prices is much higher than the pass through of exchange rates. It is positively associated with the variance of foreign inflation, which is consistent with Calvo pricing.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexius, Annika & Holmberg, Mikaela, 2017. "Pass-through with low inflation and volatile exchange rates," Research Papers in Economics 2017:1, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:sunrpe:2017_0001
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    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Calero & Gabriel Rodríguez & Rodrigo Salcedo Cisneros, 2022. "Evolution of the Exchange Rate Pass-Throught into Prices in Peru: An Empirical Application Using TVP-VAR-SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2022-510, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pass through; inflation; Bayesian time varying parameter VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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