Should Exchange Rates be Ignored in the Setting of Monetary Policy?
AbstractThe aim of this paper is to highlight the role of parameter uncertainty in optimal open-economy monetary policy. Parameter uncertainty is introduced by assuming that the coefficients of the model are random, but with known stochastic properties. The results indicate that the Taylor rule is a reasonable approximation to optimal monetary policy under uncertainty, even in an open economy. The intuition behind the result is the "Brainard conservatism principle", which drives the respone coefficients of the exchange rate variables in the optimal rule close to zero, while the response coefficients on inflation and output are similar to values suggested by Taylor. The model is estimated on German data and the Taylor rule is found to be roughly similar to the optimal rule under uncertainty.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Stockholm University, Department of Economics in its series Research Papers in Economics with number 2002:8.
Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 15 Apr 2002
Date of revision:
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Postal: Department of Economics, Stockholm, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: +46 8 16 20 00
Fax: +46 8 16 14 25
Web page: http://www.ne.su.se/
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Model uncertainty; open-economy inflation targeting; Taylor rules;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2002-06-18 (All new papers)
- NEP-FIN-2002-06-18 (Finance)
- NEP-IFN-2002-06-18 (International Finance)
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- Österholm, Pär, 2003. "The Taylor Rule: A Spurious Regression?," Working Paper Series 2003:20, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
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