Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Fighting Transient Epidemics - Optimal Vaccination Schedules Before and After an Outbreak

Contents:

Author Info

  • Nævdal, Eric

    ()
    (Department of Economics and HERO)

Abstract

Throughout history, epidemics have been a recurring terror to humanity. In vulnerable societies prior to the development of modern medicine an epidemic could wipe out 50-60% of a population. With the possible exception of AIDS, modern epidemics are less devastating to affected communities, but still impose large costs on society. Even more mundane diseases such as influenza impose large costs. A bad outbreak of the flu that causes, say, 10% of the population to loose on average 5 working days, represents a severe economic cost to society no matter how trivial the disease is. On the other hand, viruses such as the Ebola virus with a fatality rate close to 90% cause considerable harm to small contained areas even if the extreme mortality in itself prevents the disease from spreading to affect large populations. Recent diseases such as SARS and the possibility of a bird flu epidemic have underscored the importance of transient epidemics to human welfare. One common feature of many epidemics is that they tend to move through a population and then disappear. The epidemic may reappear later, possibly in a mutated form, but still represents disjoint events. To my knowledge this class of epidemic has not yet been analysed in the economic literature. Often outbreaks these epidemics are predicted, leading to the additional question of how to implement preparatory health policies anticipating the outbreak. The present paper thus fills two important gaps in the literature. First we analyse optimal vaccination policy for an epidemic that eradicates itself. Second, we analyse optimal preparatory vaccination schedules. Optimal preventive policies are likely to depend on parametersthat are intrinsically uncertain. Here we first analyse the deterministic case and use this analysis as a stepping stone for the case where there is uncertainty about if and when the epidemic starts as well as about the parameters in the model.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.hero.uio.no/publicat/2006/HERO2006_6.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Oslo University, Health Economics Research Programme in its series HERO On line Working Paper Series with number 2006:6.

as in new window
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 04 Jun 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:oslohe:2006_006

Contact details of provider:
Postal: HERO / Institute of Health Management and Health Economics P.O. Box 1089 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway
Phone: 2307 5309
Fax: 2307 5310
Email:
Web page: http://www.hero.uio.no/eng.html
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: optimal vaccination; epidemics;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:oslohe:2006_006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anbjørg Kolaas).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.