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Is Private Consumption Growth Higher (Lower) During Periods of Fiscal Contractions (Expansions)?

Author

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  • Hjelm, Göran

    (Department of Economics, Lund University)

Abstract

Case studies have claimed that private consumption growth is higher during fiscal contractions due to the very fact that government spending is cut. Indeed, neoclassical theory has this implication. This paper uses regression analysis of a panel of 19 OECD countries and shows that this is not true in general. On the contrary, contraction (expansion) periods experience lower (higher) private consumption growth which questions the genrality of the findings in case studies. We find, instead, that preceding exchange rate movements have a significant effect on the private consumption response of fiscal contractions which highlights a rather different expectational channel

Suggested Citation

  • Hjelm, Göran, 2001. "Is Private Consumption Growth Higher (Lower) During Periods of Fiscal Contractions (Expansions)?," Working Papers 2001:1, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2001_001
    as

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Fiscal contractions and expansions; Private consumption; Panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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