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Simulating the Future Pension Wealth and Retirement Saving in Sweden

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Author Info

  • Röstberg, Anna

    ()
    (Uppsala University)

  • Andersson, Björn

    ()
    (Sveriges Riksbank)

  • Lindh, Thomas

    ()
    (Institute for Futures Studies)

Abstract

In this paper the wealth consequences of the Swedish pension system in the transition from a defined benefit to notional defined contribution system are simulated with almost exact institutional detail, using life cycle profiles estimated from detailed longitudinal micro data. Projected wealth, including different types of pension wealth, are computed and compared between cohorts, gender, wealth deciles and occupational categories. Consistent saving rates and replacement rates allowing consumption to stay constant after retirement are computed. Two different macroeconomic scenarios are considered, one using stylised values for growth, inflation etc. and another using demographically based forecasts. Some conclusions are that the cohorts born in the 1940s are relatively favoured, and so are the wealthiest deciles. Stylised macro assumptions yield more optimistic wealth projections than those corresponding to demographically based projections.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for Futures Studies in its series Arbetsrapport with number 2005:6.

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Length: 59 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:ifswps:2005_006

Note: ISSN 1652-120X ISBN 91-89655-64-8
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Postal: Institute for Futures Studies, Box 591, SE-101 31 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: 08-402 12 00
Fax: 08-24 50 14
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Web page: http://www.framtidsstudier.se
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Keywords: Future Pension Wealth; Retirement Saving in Sweden;

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