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Market Expectations in the UK Before and After the ERM Crisis

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Abstract

The British pound left the ERM on 16 September 1992 after a period of turbulence. UK monetary policy soon shifted to lower short interest rates and an inflation target was announced. This paper uses daily option prices to estimate how the market's probability distribution of the future marks/pound exchange rate and UK and German interest rates changed over the summer and autumn of 1992. The results show, among other things, how various policy decisions affected the market's assessment of the probabilities of realignments and lending rate cuts.

Suggested Citation

  • Söderlind, Paul, 1997. "Market Expectations in the UK Before and After the ERM Crisis," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 210, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 19 Mar 1999.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:hastef:0210
    Note: Old title: Extracting Expectations about UK Monetary Policy 1992 from Option Prices
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    Cited by:

    1. Anthony Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2000. "Density Forecasting: A Survey," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0370, Econometric Society.
    2. Robert R Bliss & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, 2000. "Testing the stability of implied probability density functions," Bank of England working papers 114, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rates; exchange rates; futures; options; risk neutral distribution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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