Market Expectations in the UK Before and After the ERM Crisis
AbstractThe British pound left the ERM on 16 September 1992 after a period of turbulence. UK monetary policy soon shifted to lower short interest rates and an inflation target was announced. This paper uses daily option prices to estimate how the market's probability distribution of the future marks/pound exchange rate and UK and German interest rates changed over the summer and autumn of 1992. The results show, among other things, how various policy decisions affected the market's assessment of the probabilities of realignments and lending rate cuts.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Stockholm School of Economics in its series Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance with number 210.
Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 08 Dec 1997
Date of revision: 01 Sep 1998
Publication status: Published in Economica, 2000, pages 1-18.
Note: Old title: Extracting Expectations about UK Monetary Policy 1992 from Option Prices
Contact details of provider:
Postal: The Economic Research Institute, Stockholm School of Economics, P.O. Box 6501, 113 83 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: +46-(0)8-736 90 00
Fax: +46-(0)8-31 01 57
Web page: http://www.hhs.se/
More information through EDIRC
Interest rates; exchange rates; futures; options; risk neutral distribution;
Other versions of this item:
- Soderlind, Paul, 2000. "Market Expectations in the UK before and after the ERM Crisis," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 67(265), pages 1-18, February.
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-1999-03-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-1999-03-29 (European Economics)
- NEP-IFN-1999-03-29 (International Finance)
- NEP-MON-1999-03-29 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-PKE-1999-03-08 (Post Keynesian Economics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Anthony Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2000. "Density Forecasting: A Survey," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0370, Econometric Society.
- Hui, C.H. & Lo, C.F., 2009. "A note on estimating realignment probabilities - A first-passage-time approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 804-812, September.
- Gustavo Abarca & José Gonzalo Rangel & Guillermo Benavides, 2010. "Exchange Rate Market Expectations and Central Bank Policy: The case of the Mexican Peso-US Dollar from 2005-2009," Working Papers 2010-17, Banco de México.
- Ruijun Bu & Kaddour Hadri, 2005. "Estimating the Risk Neutral Probability Density Functions Natural Spline versus Hypergeometric Approach Using European Style Options," Research Papers 200510, University of Liverpool Management School.
- Robert R Bliss & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, 2000. "Testing the stability of implied probability density functions," Bank of England working papers 114, Bank of England.
- Bondarenko, Oleg, 2003. "Estimation of risk-neutral densities using positive convolution approximation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 85-112.
- Andersson, Magnus & Lomakka, Magnus, 2005. "Evaluating implied RNDs by some new confidence interval estimation techniques," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1535-1557, June.
- Vahamaa, Sami, 2005.
"Option-implied asymmetries in bond market expectations around monetary policy actions of the ECB,"
Journal of Economics and Business,
Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 23-38.
- Vähämaa, Sami, 2004. "Option-implied asymmetries in bond market expectations around monetary policy actions of the ECB," Working Paper Series 0315, European Central Bank.
- Martin Mandler, 2002. "Extracting Market Expectations from Option Prices: Two Case Studies in Market Perceptions of the ECB's Monetary Policy 1999/2000," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 138(II), pages 165-189, June.
- Cho-Hoi Hui & Tsz-Kin Chung & Chi-Fai Lo, 2013. "Using Interest Rate Derivative Prices to Estimate LIBOR-OIS Spread Dynamics and Systemic Funding Liquidity Shock Probabilities," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 131-146, May.
- Inci, Ahmet Can, 2005. "ERM effects on currency spot and futures markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 145-163, December.
- Cho-Hoi Hui & Chi-Fai Lo & Tsz-Kin Chung, 2008. "Market Expectation of Appreciation of the Renminbi," Working Papers 0803, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
- Cappiello, Lorenzo & De Santis, Roberto A., 2005. "Explaining exchange rate dynamics: the uncovered equity return parity condition," Working Paper Series 0529, European Central Bank.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Helena Lundin).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.