Real Effects of Budget Deficits? - Theory and Evidence
AbstractThis paper investigates the real effects of debt or tax financing of a given level of government consumption. The paper starts with a survey of the theoretical literature, ranging from Ricardian to Keynesian models. The conclusion from the survey is that the real effects of budget deficits are ambiguous, in some cases private consumption increases, and in other it decreases. The second part of the paper provides an empirical study of Ricardian equivalence in Sweden. The methodological framework is a vector autoregressive model with long run restrictions implied by the public and private sectors' intertemporal budget constraints. The empirical analysis indicates that the Ricardian view of fiscal policy is more in line with the estimated model than the Keynesian view. A permanent change in public consumption crowds out private consumption, while a temporary change in taxes leaves private consumption more or less unchanged.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Stockholm School of Economics in its series Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance with number 157.
Date of creation: Jan 1997
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Swedish Economic Policy Review, 1996, pages 343-383.
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Public debt; private consumption; Ricardian equivalence; sustainability; cointegration;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
- H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
- E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
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