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Gör oddssättare realistiska bedömningar? En ekonomisk-psykologisk analys av realismen i odds

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  • Andersson, Patric

    ()
    (Dept. of Business Administration, Stockholm School of Economics)

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    Abstract

    Denna uppsats redogör för en empirisk undersökning av realismen hos odds från ett stort spelbolag. Undersökningen tillämpar teorier från psykologisk beslutsforskning och beteendeinriktad ekonomisk vetenskap. Baserat på analyser av ett unikt empiriskt material bestående av odds från de fem senaste världsmästerskapen i fotboll, konstateras att oddssättarna förefaller vara välkalibrerade och besitta god förmåga att bedöma förutsättningar för framtida utfall. För vissa sannolikhetsnivåer, uppvisade oddssättarna tendenser till såväl underkonfidens som överkonfidens. Möjligheten att ekonomiskt profitera på dessa skevheter var emellertid dålig och renderade oftast i förluster.

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    File URL: http://swoba.hhs.se/hastba/papers/hastba2007_002.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Stockholm School of Economics in its series Working Paper Series in Business Administration with number 2007:002.

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    Length: 24 pages
    Date of creation: 16 Jan 2007
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hhb:hastba:2007_002

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    Postal: The Economic Research Institute, Stockholm School of Economics, P.O. Box 6501, SE 113 83 Stockholm, Sweden
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    Keywords: betting; calibration; experts; football; forecasting; overconfidence; odds-setters;

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