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The Uncertainty-Investment Relationship

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Author Info
Hjalmar Böhm ()
Michael Funke ()

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Abstract

Recent theoretical developments have highlighted the importance of irreversibility and uncertainty for investment demand. This paper presents a review of this literature with some new aspects. A structural q-type investment model is derived, which contains the information on the uncertainty effects of random variables that affect future profitability of firms. A general conclusion is that the effect of uncertainty upon investment and uncertainty is ambiguous. A necessary condition for any irreversibility-driven negative relationship between investment and uncertainty is the existence of imperfect competition.

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File URL: http://www.rrz.uni-hamburg.de/wst/qmwps/qm399.ps
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Paper provided by Hamburg University, Department of Economics in its series Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers with number 19903.

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Date of creation: Apr 1999
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Handle: RePEc:ham:qmwops:19903

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  1. Andrew B. Abel & Janice B. Eberly, . "The Effects of Irreversibility and Uncertainty on Capital Accumulation," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 21-95, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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  2. Demers, Michel, 1991. "Investment under Uncertainty, Irreversibility and the Arrival of Information over Time," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 333-50, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, 1995. "Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility," NBER Working Papers 5091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
  6. Andrew B. Abel & Avinash K. Dixit & Janice B. Eberly & Robert S. Pindyck, . "Options, the Value of Capital, and Investment," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 15-95, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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  7. Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Eberly, Janice C., 1997. "International evidence on investment and fundamentals," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1055-1078, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Pfann, Gerard A & Palm, Franz C, 1993. "Asymmetric Adjustment Costs in Non-linear Labour Demand Models for the Netherlands and U.K. Manufacturing Sectors," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 60(2), pages 397-412, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty: Keeping One's Options Open," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1816-1831, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Abel, Andrew B & Eberly, Janice C, 1994. "A Unified Model of Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1369-84, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1991. "On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 279-88, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, . "An Exact Solution for the Investment and Market Value of a Firm Facing Uncertainty, Adjustment Costs, and Irreversibility," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 12-93, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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  15. Abel, Andrew B. & Eberly, Janice C., 1997. "An exact solution for the investment and value of a firm facing uncertainty, adjustment costs, and irreversibility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(4-5), pages 831-852, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Ghosal, Vivek & Loungani, Prakash, 1996. "Product Market Competition and the Impact of Price Uncertainty on Investment: Some Evidence from US Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(2), pages 217-28, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Luigi Guiso & Giuseppe Parigi, 1999. "Investment And Demand Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 185-227, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-24, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Katharina Raabe & Ivo Arnold & Clemens Kool, 2006. "Firm Size and Monetary Policy Transmission: A Theoretical Model on the Role of Capital Investment Expenditures," Working Papers 06-14, Utrecht School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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