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The Dynamic Effects of Weather Shocks on Agricultural Production

Author

Listed:
  • Cédric Crofils

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Ewen Gallic

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Gauthier Vermandel

    (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CMAP - Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées - Ecole Polytechnique - X - École polytechnique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Banque de France - Banque de France - Banque de France)

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamic effects of weather shocks on monthly agricultural production in Peru, using a Local Projection framework. An adverse weather shock, measured by an excess of heat or rain, always generates a delayed negative downturn in agricultural production, but its magnitude and duration depend on several factors, such as the type of crop concerned or the timing at which it occurs. On average, a weather shock-a temperature shock-can cause a monthly decline of 5% in agricultural production for up to four consecutive months. The response is time-dependent: shocks occurring during the growing season exhibit a much larger response. At the macroeconomic level, weather shocks are recessionary and entail a decline in inflation, agricultural production, exports, exchange rate and GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Cédric Crofils & Ewen Gallic & Gauthier Vermandel, 2024. "The Dynamic Effects of Weather Shocks on Agricultural Production," Working Papers halshs-04443037, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-04443037
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-04443037
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