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The Acceleration Index as a Test-Controlled Reproduction Number: Application to COVID-19 in France

Author

Listed:
  • Christelle Baunez

    (INT - Institut de Neurosciences de la Timone - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Mickael Degoulet

    (INT - Institut de Neurosciences de la Timone - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Stéphane Luchini

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Matteo L. Pintus

    (AgroParisTech)

  • Patrick A. Pintus

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Miriam Teschl

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We show that the acceleration index, a novel indicator that measures acceleration and deceleration of viral spread (Baunez et al. 2020a,b), is essentially a test-controlled version of the reproduction number. As such it is a more accurate indicator to track the dynamics of an infectious disease outbreak in real time. We indicate a discrepancy between the acceleration index and the reproduction number, based on the infectivity and test rates and we provide a formal decomposition of this difference. When applied to French data for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, our decomposition shows that the reproduction number consistently underestimates the resurgence of the pandemic since the summer of 2020, compared to the acceleration index which accounts for the time-varying volume of tests. Because the acceleration index aggregates all the relevant information and captures in real time the sizeable time variation featured by viral circulation, it is a sufficient statistic to track the pandemic's propagation.

Suggested Citation

  • Christelle Baunez & Mickael Degoulet & Stéphane Luchini & Matteo L. Pintus & Patrick A. Pintus & Miriam Teschl, 2020. "The Acceleration Index as a Test-Controlled Reproduction Number: Application to COVID-19 in France," Working Papers halshs-03079490, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03079490
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03079490v2
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    1. C. Baunez & Mickael Degoulet & Stéphane Luchini & Patrick Pintus & Miriam Teschl, 2020. "Sub-National Allocation of COVID-19 Tests: An Efficiency Criterion with an Application to Italian Regions," Post-Print hal-03140005, HAL.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christelle Baunez & Mickael Degoulet & Stéphane Luchini & Patrick A Pintus & Miriam Teschl, 2021. "Tracking the dynamics and allocating tests for COVID-19 in real-time: An acceleration index with an application to French age groups and départements," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-21, June.

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    1. Christelle Baunez & Mickael Degoulet & Stéphane Luchini & Patrick A Pintus & Miriam Teschl, 2021. "Tracking the dynamics and allocating tests for COVID-19 in real-time: An acceleration index with an application to French age groups and départements," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-21, June.
    2. Christelle Baunez & Michaël Degoulet & Stéphane Luchini & Matteo L. Pintus, 2022. "Correcting the Reproduction Number for Time-Varying Tests: a Proposal and an Application to COVID-19 in France," AMSE Working Papers 2210, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised Jan 2023.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; reproduction Number; lock-down; acceleration Index; real-time analysis; France;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management

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