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Expectational coordination failures and Market outcomes' volatility

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  • Roger Guesnerie

    (CDF - Collège de France - Collège de France, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS : UMR8545 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - École normale supérieure [ENS] - Paris - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA), EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris)

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    Abstract

    The first part of this text reviews the standard economic viewpoint on expectational coordination, a viewpoint that the recent events have challenged. The second part reviews different existing directions assessments of the rational expectations hypothesis that have been made to-date. The third part shows how such a critical assessment, along the lines of the so-called "eductive" learning approach, radically modifies our view of three key problems : the economic role of speculation, the informational efficiency of markets and, last but not least, the ability of agents with long horizon to anticipate the future. The fourth part stresses what has been achieved so far well as the future challenges of the approaches advocated in this paper.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00601065.

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    Date of creation: Jun 2011
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    Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00601065

    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00601065
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    Related research

    Keywords: expectational coordination ; rational expectations hypothesis;

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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