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Healthy aging versus demographic trends: the French case, estimated by markovian microsimulation methods

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  • Sophie Thiébaut

    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille II - Université Paul Cézanne - Aix-Marseille III - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - CNRS : UMR6579, SE4S - Sciences économiques et sociales, systèmes de santé, sociétés - INSERM : U912 - IRD - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille II)

  • Andrew Armstrong

    (NATSEM - National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling)

  • Bruno Ventelou

    ()
    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille II - Université Paul Cézanne - Aix-Marseille III - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - CNRS : UMR6579, Epidémiologie et Sciences Sociales Appliquées à l'Innovation Médicale - INSERM : U379 - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille II)

Abstract

The Objective of this paper is to test the consequences of changes in health status of future cohorts of French elderly on healthcare expenditures. We value the precise effect of epidemiological and life expectancy changes on health expenditures for 2025 by using a markovian microsimulation model for a representative database of the contemporary cohorts in France. The originality of these simulations holds in the use of an aggregate indicator of morbidity-mortality, capturing a vital risk and making possible to adapt the quantification of the life expectancies by taking into account of a life without incapacity and/or of the presence of severe pathologies. We forecast a reliable range for future national health spending, under different epidemiological scenarios of morbidity: benchmark case (BM), healthy aging (HA), healthy aging and medical progress (AM). We obtain an evaluation of the annual growth rates in health expenditure accounted for solely by aging: +1.18%; +0.95%; +1.38% according to the scenarios BM; HA; AM. In short, the effective decreases in morbidity rates are not sufficient enough to compensate the massive arrival of baby-boomers at elderly age in France for the period 2010- 2025.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00443566.

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Date of creation: 30 Dec 2009
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00443566

Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00443566/en/
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Keywords: health ; health policy ; simulation method ; econometrics ; social security ; planning Models;

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