Healthy aging versus demographic trends: the French case, estimated by markovian microsimulation methods
AbstractThe Objective of this paper is to test the consequences of changes in health status of future cohorts of French elderly on healthcare expenditures. We value the precise effect of epidemiological and life expectancy changes on health expenditures for 2025 by using a markovian microsimulation model for a representative database of the contemporary cohorts in France. The originality of these simulations holds in the use of an aggregate indicator of morbidity-mortality, capturing a vital risk and making possible to adapt the quantification of the life expectancies by taking into account of a life without incapacity and/or of the presence of severe pathologies. We forecast a reliable range for future national health spending, under different epidemiological scenarios of morbidity: benchmark case (BM), healthy aging (HA), healthy aging and medical progress (AM). We obtain an evaluation of the annual growth rates in health expenditure accounted for solely by aging: +1.18%; +0.95%; +1.38% according to the scenarios BM; HA; AM. In short, the effective decreases in morbidity rates are not sufficient enough to compensate the massive arrival of baby-boomers at elderly age in France for the period 2010- 2025.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00443566.
Date of creation: 30 Dec 2009
Date of revision:
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00443566/en/
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/
health ; health policy ; simulation method ; econometrics ; social security ; planning Models;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGE-2010-01-16 (Economics of Ageing)
- NEP-ALL-2010-01-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2010-01-16 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-HEA-2010-01-16 (Health Economics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.