Long term world prospects for petrochemicals up to 1990 : scenarios of world petrochemicals. 2 : scénarios

This volume is the second part of the report entitled "Scenarios of world petrochemicals",following Volume 1, Construction of the base. The first chapter sets out the results of the SMIC survey (the questionnaire for which was given as an annex to Volume 1). The second chapter is devoted to presenting the three scenarios which have been retained : - firstly a reference scenario which corresponds to the most probable set of hypotheses on those changes vhich may take place in world petrochemicals up to the reference horizon; - secondly two contrasted scenarios, chosen from amongst the most probable scenarios and fixing the limits vithin which the situation of the world petrochemicals industry and its environment may evolve. The reference scenario describes a continuous evolution over the period 1976 - 1982 - 1990, whereas the contrasted scenarios start from the reference scenario in 1982 and lead to two different images in 1990.· It is reasonable to assume that the principal divergences which will lead to the contrasted images will essentially arise from 1982 onwards: the evolution over the period 1976 - 1982 being to large extent predetermined will therefore correspond to that in the reference scénario. , The translation into quantified terms of the 1982 and 1990 images, in respect of demand, production, trading and prices will be given in the report "Forecasts of petrochemicals production and consumption up to 1990". This report is limited to describing, in qualitative terms, the developments in world petrochemicals and its environment within the framework of each scenario. It will deal with the following points : - the international political context, - the international economic context (with particular reference to the level and type of economic growth in each geographical zone),2. - the energy context (including petrochemicals raw materials), - the actual petrochemical context itself (including the policy measures which affect it), - the technico-economic context (including technological developments in various fields and the environmental aspects), - future prospects in the major sectors which affect the final demand. Under these various headings are also included the behaviour of the various actors concerned, together with the attitude of consumers, inasfar as they can be clearly distinguished from previous behaviour patterns. As has already been pointed out the trading patterns will be dealt vith in a quantitative manner in the report "Forecasts of petrochemicals production and consumption up to 1990".