Modèle économétrique de l'industrie agro-alimentaire

It concerned to apprehend, by econometric analysis, a part of determinant andphenomenen of competitive trought flux of exchange with exterior of food industry sector ; to explicit the factors contributing to a physical capital formation of sector by cherching determinants of theses investments, and in last to bring out the capacity of self-financing to measure extensive of lever effect. The suggested model include a restricted determinism recursive type, applicant the causality relations in generally non reversible between explanatory variables and explained variables. I show that the food industry sector is generally in overproduction. The same if I reduce the rate of capacity utilization of production, the rate of exterior exchange excess continue to increase ; all the more as the rate of demand growth of foods products (given in constant price) present a positive effect, i.e. the increasing of the national consommation not diminish, but on the contrary increase the commercial result with other world by stimulating the production. It is showed likewise that the sector is organised and managed essentially by financial capital and in minor measure by industrial capital. What suggest that the financial cooperative game is straight from to improve the profitability of sector,whatever the financial lever of debts at long term permit to realize the profitability of specific capitals. This corner indicate that the sector of food industry is not inactive about expenses of equipments.