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The Impact of the Cyclical Downturn on Long-Term Growth: Human Capital, Political Economy, and Non-Performing Loans

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  • Sergei Guriev

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR)

Abstract

As Europe emerges from the Great Recession and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis, it has to make sure that the costs of the protracted recession are temporary and that there is no adverse impact on long-term growth. I discuss three channels through which the cycle may hurt potential growth: (i) human capital, (ii) the rise of populism, and (iii) non-performing loans. I also discuss policy responses to mitigate these risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergei Guriev, 2017. "The Impact of the Cyclical Downturn on Long-Term Growth: Human Capital, Political Economy, and Non-Performing Loans," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03916482, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03916482
    DOI: 10.2866/7866
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03916482
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