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The Economy of the People's Republic of China since 1953

Author

Listed:
  • Anton Cheremukhin
  • Mikhail Golosov
  • Sergei Guriev

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Aleh Tsyvinski

    (Yale University [New Haven])

Abstract

This paper studies growth and structural transformation of the Chinese economy from 1953 to 2012 through a lens of a two-sector growth model. The main goal of the paper is to provide a systematic analysis of both the pre-1978 reform and post-1978 reform periods in a unified framework. First, we construct a dataset that allows the application of the neoclassical model and computation of wedges, their components, and rates of TFP growth. Second, we determine the key quantitative factors behind growth and structural transformation. The changes in the intersectoral labor wedge play the dominant role in accounting for the change in the share of labor force in agriculture. TFP growth and changes in the intersectoral wedges are the two most significant factors contributing to GDP growth. Further decomposing the effects of reduction in wedges, we find that two components: the production component (the gap between the ratio of the marginal products of labor and relative wages) and the consumption component (the gap between the marginal rate of substitution and the relative prices) play a particularly large role. Third, we use the pre-reform period as a key benchmark to measure the success of the post-1978 reforms. We show that reforms yielded a significant growth and structural transformation differential. GDP growth is 4.2 percentage points higher and the share of the labor force in agriculture is 23.9 percentage points lower compared with the continuation of the pre-1978 policies. We provide extensive historical evidence for the reforms that are consistent with the evolution of the components of the wedges. The decrease in the production component of the intersectoral wedge is consistent with increased competition and demonopolization of the economy. The decrease in the consumption component of the wedge is consistent with the price and housing reforms. Finally, we project the path of the Chinese economy until 2050 and also calculate a lower bound on future growth by projecting pre-reform trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Anton Cheremukhin & Mikhail Golosov & Sergei Guriev & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2015. "The Economy of the People's Republic of China since 1953," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459737, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03459737
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03459737
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    Cited by:

    1. Murach, Michael & Wagner, Helmut & Kim, Jungsuk & Park, Donghyun, 2022. "Trajectories to high income: Comparing the growth dynamics in China, South Korea, and Japan with cointegrated VAR models," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 492-511.
    2. Justin Yifu Lin & Wei Wang & Venite Zhaoyang Xu, 2021. "Catch‐up industrial policy and economic transition in China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 602-632, March.
    3. Marinko Skare & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Gloria Claudio-Quiroga & Romina Pržiklas Družeta, 2021. "Income inequality in China 1952–2017: persistence and main determinants," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 12(4), pages 863-888, December.
    4. del Río, Fernando & Lores, Francisco-Xavier, 2023. "Accounting for Spanish economic development 1850-2019," MPRA Paper 116025, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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