Dans les coulisses du confinement : modélisation de chocs simultanés d'offre et de demande

The Covid-19 pandemic and the first lockdown measures to stem its diffusion have resulted in a economic crisis of an unprecedent scale and nature. Undermined by shocks affecting both productive capacities and consumer behaviour, economic activity slumped by nearly 31% in April 2020 in France. In order to assess the effects of the Covid-19 shock, we rely on a modified version of Leontief's (1944) open model that allows us to study the diffusion of simultaneous supply and demand shocks through the productive fabric. We refer to it as a "mixed" model. Hence, by setting constraints on the production and not exclusively on final demand, we are able to determine the size of the shocks compatible with the economic downturn witnessed in April. We find that administrative closures alone explain 12 points of the decline, while school closures and other supply difficulties each explain 5 points. The decline final demand is responsible for 11 points of the drop in activity. Finally, the way shocks interact with one another mitigates the overall economic impact by 2 points.