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Défaillances de coordination et volatilité des marchés

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  • Roger Guesnerie

    (CDF - Collège de France - Collège de France, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS : UMR8545 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - École normale supérieure [ENS] - Paris - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA), EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris)

Abstract

Ce texte est celui venant en support de la conférence Jean Jacques Laffont prononcée en clôture du Congrès 2010 de l'Association Française de Science Economique. La première partie revient sur la vision économique standard de la coordination des anticipations, vision que les événements récents conduisent à remettre en cause. La seconde partie passe en revue les directions existantes de réflexion critique sur l'hypothèse d'anticipations rationnelles. La troisième partie montre comment l'évaluation critique de l'hypothèse, dans une logique parfois qualifiée de « divinatoire », change radicalement notre regard sur trois problèmes : le rôle économique de la spéculation, l'efficacité informationnelle des marchés, et last but not least, la capacité des agents à horizon long à anticiper l'avenir.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series PSE Working Papers with number halshs-00564997.

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Date of creation: Dec 2010
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Handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-00564997

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Keywords: coordination des anticipations ; hypothèse d'anticipations rationnelles;

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