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L'impact des chocs externes sur et à l'intérieur de la zone euro : les enseignements d'un modèle vectoriel autorégressif structurel

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Baptiste Gossé

    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Cyriac Guillaumin

    (CREG - Centre de recherche en économie de Grenoble - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2)

Abstract

This article studies the impact on Europe of the main external shocks that occurred in the 2000s, such as rising oil prices, the fall in the US interest rate, stock market bubbles in the United States, and rising global imbalances. We estimate an SVAR model with exogeneity constraints, together with contemporary and long-term restrictions, in order to measure the impact of these shocks on the euro area and its member countries, as well as on the United Kingdom. The findings show that external shocks during the 2000s help to explain Europe's relatively sluggish growth, the appreciation of the euro, and widening current account deficits within the euro area.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Baptiste Gossé & Cyriac Guillaumin, 2010. "L'impact des chocs externes sur et à l'intérieur de la zone euro : les enseignements d'un modèle vectoriel autorégressif structurel," Post-Print halshs-00739915, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00739915
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    Cited by:

    1. Gossé, Jean-Baptiste & Guillaumin, Cyriac, 2013. "L’apport de la représentation VAR de Christopher A. Sims à la science économique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 89(4), pages 309-319, Décembre.
    2. Marien Coupaud, 2013. "Contagion des crises de 1997 et 2008 en ASEAN+3 : un modèle VAR structurel," Larefi Working Papers 1306, Larefi, Université Bordeaux 4.
    3. Giscard Assoumou Ella, 2013. "The viability of an economic and monetary union in Africa with a unified currency: evidence from the African economies' reactions to the international income, price and monetary shocks," Working Papers hal-00851594, HAL.
    4. Marine Coupaud, 2013. "Contagion Des Crises De 1997 Et 2008 En Asean+3: Un Modele Var Structurel," Working Papers hal-00913175, HAL.
    5. Giscard Assoumou Ella, 2013. "Impact of international income, prices and monetary shocks on real exchange rate in eight African economies: An empirical study," The Empirical Econometrics and Quantitative Economics Letters, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, vol. 2(3), pages 41-54, September.

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