Relationships between the tide and fatal drowning at surf beaches in New South Wales, Australia: Implications for coastal safety management and practice

Beaches are popular, recreational destinations, but can be hazardous environments where drowning fatalities and other types of injuries can occur. Ocean lifeguards and beach safety managers make operational safety decisions based on ocean conditions, including various elements of the tide. This study addresses assumptions about the tide that are common in beach safety management; assessing the scientific basis that informs these decisions by evaluating the relationship between elements of the tide and fatal drowning on microtidal surf beaches in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Lower tidal water levels and time periods closer to low tide were associated with increased likelihood of fatal drowning at surf beaches, while tidal phase (rising vs falling), tide range, and the rate of change of falling or rising water levels were not. These results have implications for ocean safety management and those responsible for educating the public about beach safety issues. Broad statements or anecdotal opinions that are not location or beach-specific should avoid describing times with falling water levels (an outgoing tide) as being inherently more dangerous.