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Dette publique du risque d'insoutenabilite au risque d'illiquidite

Author

Listed:
  • Damien Besancenot

    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord (ancienne affiliation) - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Kim Huynh

    (LEM - Laboratoire d'Économie Moderne - UP2 - Université Panthéon-Assas)

  • Radu Vranceanu

    (ESSEC Business School)

Abstract

This paper analyses the risk of default on public debt within a repeated game between the governement and private investors. The government has only an imperfect control over the stream of future revenues. In this case, a long sequence of adverse budgetary shocks may push the debt over its sustainable level, defined as the discounted flow of future primary surpluses. Given this small risk of unsustainability, we put forward a debt threshold above which investors refuse to subscribe to a new debt issue. But this shortage of liquidity suffices to bring about default. Hence, this « illiquidity » threshold becomes the new critical threshold. The series of decreasing critical illiquidity thresholds converges to a limit value. This risk-free debt level may be much lower than the sustainable level. Policy implications call for a more restrictive definition of a sound fiscal stance. Classification JEL : E62, F34, H63
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Damien Besancenot & Kim Huynh & Radu Vranceanu, 2003. "Dette publique du risque d'insoutenabilite au risque d'illiquidite," Post-Print hal-04103118, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04103118
    DOI: 10.2307/3503107
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    Cited by:

    1. TAPSOBA, Sampawende J.-A. TAPSOBA & SEMBENE, Daouda & GAMMADIGB, Vigninou & ISSIFOU, Ismaël, 2019. "Fiscal Convergence in Africa: What Role for Regional Economic Communities?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 34(2), pages 214-235.
    2. Vigninou GAMMADIGBE & Ismaël ISSIFOU & Sampawende J.-A. TAPSOBA & Daouda SEMBENE, 2018. "Convergence et divergence budgétaire en Afrique : le rôle des Communautés économiques régionales et des Unions économiques et monétaires," Working Papers P217, FERDI.
    3. repec:hal:journl:dumas-00834841 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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