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Un retour de la croissance vers son potentiel de long terme

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  • Julien Vercueil

    (CREE EA 4513 - Centre de recherches Europes-Eurasie - Inalco - Institut National des Langues et Civilisations Orientales)

Abstract

Après la réévaluation-surprise de son niveau fin 2018, la croissance est revenue au cours du premier semestre 2019 à des niveaux plus proches de son potentiel de long terme. Ceci parce que les causes du regain temporaire de croissance ont disparu, avec l'achèvement des grands travaux énergétiques et logistiques et l'effet-retour de la hausse de la TVA au premier janvier. Par sa politique prudente, conduite dans la crainte d'un regain d'inflation lié à la hausse de la TVA, la Banque centrale de Russie a prolongé jusqu'en juin des conditions restrictives de crédit à l'économie. De son côté, la règle budgétaire, qui consiste à neutraliser toute recette fiscale provoquée par la hausse des prix du pétrole au-dessus de 40 $ le baril, a continué à être appliquée, contenant le rythme d'augmentation des dépenses publiques au niveau de l'inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Julien Vercueil, 2019. "Un retour de la croissance vers son potentiel de long terme," Post-Print hal-04057819, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04057819
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04057819
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    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-04057819/document
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