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La stagnation séculaire

Author

Listed:
  • Gilles Le Garrec

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Vincent Touzé

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

a stagnation séculaire peut être liée, côté offre, à l'affaiblissement de la productivité entamé dans les années 1970. D'un autre côté, une demande insuffisante peut générer une double spirale, déflationniste et de l'épargne de précaution, et s'accompagner d'une hausse durable du chômage, en cas de rigidité nominale à la baisse des salaires. La première explication se heurte aux effets inflationnistes, prédits mais non observés. Et, associée à un pessimisme technologique, un monde sans croissance à long terme apparaît alors comme inéluctable. Selon la seconde explication, la sortie de la stagnation séculaire nécessite des politiques budgétaire et monétaire (non conventionnelle) expansionnistes et suffisamment massives, afin de faire remonter la demande globale et le niveau d'inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touzé, 2018. "La stagnation séculaire," Post-Print hal-03399198, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03399198
    as

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