BREXIT BEFORE BREXIT. Consequences of Brexit's anticipations on British entrepreneurs in France, between 2016 and 2019

Since the Brexit vote, French media have reported numerous testimonies from British expatriates working in France who are concerned about the consequences of leaving the EU on their business: increased taxes, access to certain professions, introduction of visas and residence permits, validity of diplomas, etc. Some even say they are already suffering negative consequences on their business. In this chapter, we wonder what legal consequences Brexit could have on those British working in France, and whether this would have economic impact. We look at the economic and social situation of these expatriate entrepreneurs, and how they organize themselves in front of Brexit. To this end, we analysed around fifty comments on websites and social networks, and conducted interviews with about ten experts (local elected officials, expatriate associations, real estate agents, chambers of commerce), then with a dozen British entrepreneurs in New Aquitaine. After having drawn up the social and economic portraits of these expatriates and their businesses, it appears that, although the legal consequences of Brexit are not yet effective, nor even known, some actors have begun to anticipate potential changes. And these expectations have impact on other stakeholders. In addition to the decrease in turnover due to the devaluation of the Pound, some French firms are beginning to anticipate possible legal problems, which sometimes penalises (discriminates?) British expatriates. Fearing that work permit deadlines may become too long for British self-employed people, they are looking for suppliers in other UE countries. Some British job seekers consider that employers are reluctant to hire them, not knowing whether they will be able to keep them after 2019. There are also new difficulties with banks... British expats are very concerned about these risks, yet most of them have not started to react. They are waiting to know about the new rules. The main actions observed are attempts to juggle with nationalities: application for French citizenship and residence permits (but few meet the required conditions), trying legal arrangements with other countries.... However, the most enterprising are considering changing their business models to be less dependent on the British community's customers. In general, we have discovered economic and social situations that are often fragile. The Brexits could amplify their problems, even to the point of precariousness for some of them. As a conclusion, we propose a series of measures to reduce the negative effects of Brexit, with collective solutions, or the drafting of clauses in commercial contracts.