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Presidential term limits and fiscal policy in African countries†

Author

Listed:
  • Urbain Thierry Yogo

    (University of Yaoundé [Cameroun])

  • Joseph Keneck Massil

    (Cemotev - Centre d'études sur la mondialisation, les conflits, les territoires et les vulnérabilités - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines)

Abstract

This paper assesses the effect of the attempt by an incumbent to amend the section of the constitution related to the presidential term limits on fiscal policy. Specifically, we test the hypothesis that the process of modifying the constitution to run for a third term leads the incumbent to increase government spending as a tool for political patronage. Using a sample of 30 African countries over the period 1990–2010, our findings indicate an increase in government spending during the term in which the constitution was amended. In addition, we find evidence of the exacerbation of the political budget cycle during periods of expansion. However, this effect is not robust to alternative estimation strategies, including matching techniques. From the policy perspective, this study suggests that it is worth watching out not only for elections but also for constitutional changes that are a catalyst of fiscal indiscipline and can further weaken institutions that are positively correlated with countercyclical fiscal policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Urbain Thierry Yogo & Joseph Keneck Massil, 2019. "Presidential term limits and fiscal policy in African countries†," Post-Print hal-02509446, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02509446
    DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejy021
    as

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