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La relation entre les changements de dividendes et les variations de bénéfices futurs, revisitée en temps de crise : le cas de la France

Author

Listed:
  • Yaovi Sélom Agbetonyo

    (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Jean-Laurent Viviani

    (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper studies the relationship between dividend changes and future earnings about French companies listed on the SBF 120 over the period of 2004-2012 and it takes into account the last financial crisis of 2007-2009. We use an approach, which is comparable to those used by Nissim and Ziv (2001), Freeman et al. (1982) in USA. Distinguishing dividend increases from dividend decreases, we find statistically significance evidence in favour of the dividend signaling theory. Our results show that decisions of dividend increases (decreases) would predict future earnings increases (decreases) only in the first year following the year of dividend change. The opposite effect occurs in the second year. The results also show that returns on equity are correlated with future earnings and are characterized by a process of mean reverting. Morever, we observe that the relationship does not vary particularly whether we change models or periods we considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Yaovi Sélom Agbetonyo & Jean-Laurent Viviani, 2018. "La relation entre les changements de dividendes et les variations de bénéfices futurs, revisitée en temps de crise : le cas de la France," Post-Print hal-01907867, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01907867
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01907867
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