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Aging, Human Capital, and Productivity in France: A Generational Accounting Perspective

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  • Xavier Chojnicki

    (EQUIPPE - Economie Quantitative, Intégration, Politiques Publiques et Econométrie - Université de Lille, Sciences et Technologies - Université de Lille, Sciences Humaines et Sociales - PRES Université Lille Nord de France - Université de Lille, Droit et Santé, LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Paul Eliot Rabesandratana

    (LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to highlight the potential productivity gains resulting from improvements in the (i) educational attainment and (ii) health status of the working‐age population. For that purpose, we develop a Generational Accounting Model applied to the French economy. Using the conventional methodology of generational accounting, we first estimate the adjustments that will be necessary to ensure the sustainability of French fiscal policy in the long term under the assumption that individual taxes and transfers grow at the same rate as labor productivity. However, this assumption does not account for the explicit determinants of individual productivity. Therefore, we then explain how productivity growth is partly due to the French population's skill level and its health level, which is approximated by the survival rate of adults. We estimate that the increased educational attainment and improved adult survival rate in France generate potentially important productivity gains that could significantly challenge the weight of the burden induced by aging. Therefore, we estimate that this change could reduce the tax burden bequeathed to future generations by 79 percent. Our results are robust to the main assumptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Xavier Chojnicki & Paul Eliot Rabesandratana, 2017. "Aging, Human Capital, and Productivity in France: A Generational Accounting Perspective," Post-Print hal-01744517, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01744517
    DOI: 10.1111/roiw.12306
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    Cited by:

    1. Qiling Lu & Jing Hua, 2023. "Micro-Household Human Capital Investment Decisions and a Simulation Study from the Intergenerational Conflict Perspective," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(3), pages 1-21, January.

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