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The NAIRU: Still 'Not An Interesting Rate of Unemployment'

Author

Listed:
  • Dany Lang

    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper assesses the Layard et al. (1991) NAIRU framework for explaining unemployment. Their approach is distinct from the natural rate of unemployment framework in that it postulates a short-run NAIRU influenced by 'hysteresis'. It is pointed out that this is not hysteresis in the meaning employed elsewhere, so an outline of what hysteresis actually implies for unemployment is offered. The main implication is that unemployment does not revert to a long-run 'natural rate' equilibrium, as claimed by Layard et al., but instead is shaped by the past extrema of dominant exogenous shocks. It is argued that this is a more useful approach to the explanation of equilibrium unemployment than the NAIRU, which, for its analytical and empirical flaws, can be considered to be 'not an interesting rate of unemployment'. The hysteretic alternative to the natural rate hypothesis can be called the DESIRU (dominant extrema, steady inflation, rate of unemployment).

Suggested Citation

  • Dany Lang, 2011. "The NAIRU: Still 'Not An Interesting Rate of Unemployment'," Post-Print hal-01366010, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01366010
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    Cited by:

    1. Valerija Botric, 2012. "NAIRU estimates for Croatia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 30(1), pages 163-180.
    2. Rod Cross, 2014. "Unemployment: natural rate epicycles or hysteresis?," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 136-148, September.
    3. Alexander Mikhailovich Batkovskiy & Viktor Antonovich Nesterov & Olga Olegovna Reshetova & Elena Georgievna Semenova & Alena Vladimirovna Fomina, 2017. "Dynamic Model of Optimal Production Control in a Hysteretic Behaviour of Economic Agents," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2A), pages 355-379.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    NAIRU; hysteresis; path dependency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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