Analyzing house-price evolution to understand a deprived area: The Northern part of France case study

It is widely perceived that large scale transportation projects will have several positive impacts both on the areas around its stations as well as at regional level. Thus, it is expected that a new transport infrastructure will produce changes on the real estate market. Generally, these changes are analyzed using cross-sectional hedonic models and once the infrastructure is operating. This study measures the actual impact of urban transportation on the real estate market in an area where a future large-scale transportation project will run. In this analysis, we evaluate the effects of transportation while accounting for a number of structural, locational and neighborhood variables making use of a location-detailed dataset over a period of time. To complement our research, qualitative analysis is also employed by means of interviews with real estate agents. We explore if there are significant land price changes due to the current public/private transportation characteristics of the area and discuss what may have happened due to the so-called "announcement or anticipation effect". Finally, the results are better explained when the socioeconomic characteristics of the study area are deeply examined, hence some more issues arise. As a case study, we analyze the Bassin Minier of Nord-Pas-de-Calais region in France. It is a deprived area which was the main pole of mining activities; mines stopped several decades ago, and the area was recently converted into patrimony of humanity. The Transport Authority that serves this area has planned to build two new tramway lines in the near future, that will improve the accessibility in the area and which are not exempt of polemic.