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Temporary and permanent shocks in GDP for France, the United Kingdom and the United States
[Chocs temporaires et permanents dans le PIB de la France, du Royaume-Uni et des États-Unis]

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier Darné

    (CERESUR - Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Economique et Sociales de l'Université de La Réunion - UR - Université de La Réunion, Banque de France - Banque de France - Banque de France)

  • Claude Diebolt

    (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, HU Berlin - Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin = Humboldt University of Berlin = Université Humboldt de Berlin)

Abstract

In this paper, infrequent large temporary and permanent shocks that have affected the quarterly GDP series for France, the United Kingdom and the United States are analyzed in the post World War II period using the outlier method. Strong proof of permanent and/or transitory shocks are found, resulting from (national and international) economic, political and monetary events. We show that the persistence in GDP for France and the United States is associated to infrequent large shocks as well as permanent shocks that are assumed to be randomly generated every observation period as in the case of a random walk.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt, 2006. "Temporary and permanent shocks in GDP for France, the United Kingdom and the United States [Chocs temporaires et permanents dans le PIB de la France, du Royaume-Uni et des États-Unis]," Post-Print hal-00279389, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00279389
    DOI: 10.3917/redp.161.0065
    as

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