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Simulation of current pricing-tendencies in the German electricity market for private consumption

Author

Listed:
  • Moritz Müller

    (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Frank Sensfuß

    (Fraunhofer ISI - Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research - Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft - Fraunhofer)

  • Martin Wietschel

    (Fraunhofer ISI - Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research - Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft - Fraunhofer)

Abstract

The German electricity market for private consumption is characterized by increasing prices and low participation of the consumers. This prompts us to investigate the interdependencies between the customers' engagement in the market and the suppliers' pricing strategies. Based on an analysis of the German retail market, an agent-based simulation model is developed. Whereas the behaviour of private customers is calibrated on field data, the suppliers learn to maximize profits with a feedback-learning heuristic. The simulation results show a tendency of rising prices, which are created without the assumption of tacit collusion among suppliers. We conclude that in Germany the current market pressure of private customers may not be a sufficient incentive for suppliers to lower electricity prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Moritz Müller & Frank Sensfuß & Martin Wietschel, 2007. "Simulation of current pricing-tendencies in the German electricity market for private consumption," Post-Print hal-00278957, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00278957
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2007.02.032
    as

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