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Deflation in China

Author

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  • Samuel Guérineau

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This article investigates the causes of the deflation which occurred in China since 1998. The analysis is based on a theoretical model which makes the distinction between tradable and non tradable goods and on the estimation of a reduced equation of consumer prices variations for the period 1986-2002. The results of this estimation corroborate the theoretical assumptions. The main conclusion is that the slowing down of inflation and the fall of prices are chiefly explained by China macroeconomic policy. Moreover and contrary to the current opinion we find that deflation is partly due to the deceleration of productivity growth in the tradable sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Samuel Guérineau & Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney, 2005. "Deflation in China," Post-Print hal-00017064, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00017064
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    Cited by:

    1. Ferrara, Maria & Garofalo, Antonio & Agovino, Massimiliano, 2020. "Disinflation costs in China and monetary policy regimes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 586-594.
    2. Chengsi Zhang, 2009. "Structural instability of China inflation dynamics," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 4(1), pages 30-45, March.
    3. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Understanding the inflation-output nexus for China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 82-90, March.

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