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A non-parametric method to nowcast the Euro Area IPI

Author

Listed:
  • Laurent Ferrara

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, DGEI-DAMEP - Banque de France)

  • Thomas Raffinot

    (CPR-Asset Management - CPR Asset Management)

Abstract

Non-parametric methods have been empirically proved to be of great interest in the statistical literature in order to forecast stationary time series, but very few applications have been proposed in the econometrics literature. In this paper, our aim is to test whether non-parametric statistical procedures based on a Kernel method can improve classical linear models in order to nowcast the Euro area manufacturing industrial production index (IPI) by using business surveys released by the European Commission. Moreover, we consider the methodology based on bootstrap replications to estimate the confidence interval of the nowcasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurent Ferrara & Thomas Raffinot, 2008. "A non-parametric method to nowcast the Euro Area IPI," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00275769, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00275769
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00275769
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    Keywords

    Non-parametric; Kernel; nowcasting; bootstrap; Euro area IPI.; Euro area IPI; Non-paramétrique; noyaux; IPI zone euro.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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