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A non-parametric method to nowcast the Euro Area IPI

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  • Laurent Ferrara

    ()
    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne, DGEI-DAMEP - Banque de France)

  • Thomas Raffinot

    ()
    (CPR-Asset Management - CPR Asset Management)

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    Abstract

    Non-parametric methods have been empirically proved to be of great interest in the statistical literature in order to forecast stationary time series, but very few applications have been proposed in the econometrics literature. In this paper, our aim is to test whether non-parametric statistical procedures based on a Kernel method can improve classical linear models in order to nowcast the Euro area manufacturing industrial production index (IPI) by using business surveys released by the European Commission. Moreover, we consider the methodology based on bootstrap replications to estimate the confidence interval of the nowcasts.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00275769.

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    Date of creation: Apr 2008
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    Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00275769

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    Related research

    Keywords: Non-parametric; Kernel; nowcasting; bootstrap; Euro area IPI.;

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