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Ressources renouvelables et incertitude sur lespréférences des générations futures

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Author Info

  • Alain Ayong Le Kama

    (Université Lille 1 - Sciences et technologies - Université Lille I - Sciences et technologies - PRES Université Lille Nord de France)

  • Katheline Schubert

    ()
    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris 1 - Panthéon-Sorbonne)

Abstract

Rien ne nous permet d'être certains que les générations futures auront les mêmes préférences que nous concernant les biens environnementaux. En outre, même si nous sommes tentés, en raison de la dégradation de la qualité de l'environnement, de croire que leur sensibilité à l'environnement sera plus grande que la notre, rien ne nous permet de l'affirmer avec certitude. Cet article étudie alors, dans un cadre très simple, les conséquences en termes de trajectoires optimales de consommation d'une incertitude sur les préférences des générations futures en matière de consommation d'une ressource environnementale renouvelable. Une telle incertitude va-t-elle induire un comportement optimal plus "conservateur" vis-à-vis de la ressource ? Nous montrons que tel est le cas uniquement si nous anticipons aujourd'hui que les générations futures seront en moyenne plus sensibles que nous ne le sommes à la consommation permise par l'utilisation de la ressource environnementale. Nous montrons en outre que la prise en compte de cette incertitude conduit à une profonde modification de la trajectoire optimale de consommation, qui non seulement devient non-continue mais en outre peut devenir non-monotone.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00206513.

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Date of creation: Mar 2006
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published, Revue d'Economie Politique, 2006, 116, 2, 229-250
Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00206513

Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00206513
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Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/

Related research

Keywords: ressources renouvelables; croissance; préférences; incertitude;

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Cited by:
  1. Ayong Le Kama, Alain & Fodha, Mouez & Lafforgue, Gilles, 2011. "Optimal Carbon Capture and Storage Policies," LERNA Working Papers 11.13.347, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
  2. Alain Ayong Le Kama & Mouez Fodha, 2008. "Optimal Nuclear Waste Burial Policy under Uncertainty," Post-Print halshs-00348869, HAL.

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