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The Performance of Default Risk Structural Models on Commercial Mortgages: An Empirical Investigation

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Author Info
Richard K. Green (The George Washington University School of Business)
George M. Jabbour (The George Washington University School of Business)
Yi-Kang Liu (Pentagon Federal Credit Union)

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Abstract

This paper uses the first-passage-time approach to estimate default probabilities of commercial mortgages and the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) approach to empirically test the cash flow proposition of Vandell (1995). The focus is on comparing the performance between a single trigger model and a double-trigger model. Using 17,616 lockout commercial loans issued between 1995 and 2001, we find the property value model performs the best. In addition, the results provide a partial support to the cash flow proposition.

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Paper provided by School of Business, The George Washington University in its series Working Papers with number 0014.

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Date of creation: Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:gwu:wpaper:0014

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  1. Ambrose, Brent W & Sanders, Anthony B, 2003. "Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities: Prepayment and Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 26(2-3), pages 179-96, March-May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Brent W. Ambrose & Michael J. Highfield & Peter D. Linneman, 2005. "Real Estate and Economies of Scale: The Case of REITs," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 33(2), pages 323-350, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Engelmann, Bernd & Hayden, Evelyn & Tasche, Dirk, 2003. "Measuring the Discriminative Power of Rating Systems," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2003,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ciochetti, Brian A, et al, 2003. "A Proportional Hazards Model of Commercial Mortgage Default with Originator Bias," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 5-23, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Lawrence Goldberg & Charles A. Capone, Jr., 2002. "A Dynamic Double-Trigger Model of Multifamily Mortgage Default," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 85-113. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ambrose, Brent W & Buttimer, Richard J, Jr, 2000. "Embedded Options in the Mortgage Contract," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 95-111, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 2000. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 275-308, March.
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  8. Ambrose, Brent W & Capone, Charles A, Jr & Deng, Yongheng, 2001. "Optimal Put Exercise: An Empirical Examination of Conditions for Mortgage Foreclosure," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 213-34, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-67, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Hayne E. Leland and Klaus Bjerre Toft., 1995. "Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-259, University of California at Berkeley.
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