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The Optimal Allocation of Global Land Use in the Food-Energy-Environment Trilemma

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  • Steinbuks, Jevgenijs
  • Thomas Hertel

Abstract

This study analyzes the optimal allocation of the world's land resources over the course of the next century in the dynamic forward-looking framework, which brings together distinct strands of economic, agronomic, and biophysical literature and incorporates key drivers affecting global landuse. We show that, while some deforestation is optimal in the near term, the desirability of further deforestation is elimated by mid-century under the baseline scenario. While the adverse productivity shocks from climate change have a modest effect on global land use, when combined with high growth in energy prices they lead to significant deforestation and higher GHG emissions than in the baseline. Imposition of GHG emissions constraint further heightens the competition for land, as fertilizer use declines and land-based mitigation strategies expand. However, the effectiveness of such a pre-announced constraint is completely diluted by intertemporal substitution of deforestation which accelerates prior to imposition of the target.

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File URL: http://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/res_display.asp?RecordID=3735
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University in its series GTAP Working Papers with number 3735.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:gta:workpp:3735

Note: GTAP Working Paper No. 64
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