Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The estimation of threshold models in price transmission analysis

Contents:

Author Info

  • Friederike Greb

    (Georg-August-University Göttingen)

  • Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel

    (Georg-August-University Göttingen)

  • Tatyana Krivobokova

    (Georg-August-University Göttingen)

  • Axel Munk

    (Georg-August-University Göttingen)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    The threshold vector error correction model is a popular tool for the analysis of spatial price transmission and market integration. In the literature, the profi le likelihood estimator is the preferred choice for estimating this model. Yet, in certain settings this estimator performs poorly. In particular, if the true thresholds are such that one or more regimes contain only a small number of observations, if unknown model parameters are numerous or if parameters diff er little between regimes, the profi le likelihood estimator displays large bias and variance. Such settings are likely when studying price transmission. For simpler, but related threshold models Greb et al. (2011) have developed an alternative estimator, the regularized Bayesian estimator, which does not exhibit these weaknesses. We explore the properties of this estimator for threshold vector error correction models. Simulation results show that it outperforms the profi le likelihood estimator, especially in situations in which the pro file likelihood estimator fails. Two empirical applications - a reassessment of the the seminal paper by Goodwin and Piggott (2001), and an analysis of price transmission between German and Spanish markets for pork - demonstrate the relevance of the new approach for spatial price transmission analysis.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www2.vwl.wiso.uni-goettingen.de/courant-papers/CRC-PEG_DP_103.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Courant Research Centre PEG in its series Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers with number 103.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: 06 Dec 2011
    Date of revision: 08 Oct 2012
    Handle: RePEc:got:gotcrc:103

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Platz der Goettinger Sieben 3; D-37073 Goettingen, GERMANY
    Phone: +49 551 39 14066
    Fax: + 49 551 39 14059
    Web page: http://www.uni-goettingen.de/en/82144.html

    Related research

    Keywords: Bayesian estimator; market integration; spatial arbitrage; TVECM;

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Barry K. Goodwin & Nicholas E. Piggott, 2001. "Spatial Market Integration in the Presence of Threshold Effects," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(2), pages 302-317.
    2. Bruce E. Hansen, 1996. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 319., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 May 1998.
    3. Kelvin Balcombe & Alastair Bailey & Jonathan Brooks, 2007. "Threshold Effects in Price Transmission: The Case of Brazilian Wheat, Maize, and Soya Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(2), pages 308-323.
    4. Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002. "Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October.
    5. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    6. Kelvin Balcombe & George Rapsomanikis, 2008. "Bayesian Estimation and Selection of Nonlinear Vector Error Correction Models: The Case of the Sugar-Ethanol-Oil Nexus in Brazil," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(3), pages 658-668.
    7. Lo, Ming Chien & Zivot, Eric, 2001. "Threshold Cointegration And Nonlinear Adjustment To The Law Of One Price," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(04), pages 533-576, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:got:gotcrc:103. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dominik Noe).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.