The transition period before the inflation targeting policy
AbstractIn this paper, we study the inflation dynamics in an industrial inflation-targeting country (New Zealand). Our objective is to check if the inflation targeting policy has a transition period or not. Loosely speaking, we try to give some response to the famous debate: if the inflation targeting is a framework or a simple monetary rule. For this purpose, we use a frequency approach: Evolutionary Spectral Analysis, as defined by Priestley (1965-1996). Then, we detect endogenously a structural break point in inflation series, by applying a non-parametric test. This is the first time that this method is used in the case of inflation-targeting countries. Our main finding is that the adoption of the inflation-targeting policy in New Zealand was characterized by a transition period before the adoption of this framework. This period was characterized by many radical reforms, which caused a structural break in the New Zealand inflation series. These reforms were made to lead back the inflation close to the initial target. In addition, these reforms increased the transparency and the credibility of the monetary policy. We conclude from our frequency analysis that the inflation series becomes stable in long-term after the adoption of the inflation targeting. This can be a justification of the effectiveness of this policy to ensure the price stability.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure in its series Working Papers with number 0830.
Length: 12 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
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New Zealand; Inflation Targeting; Spectral Analysis and Structural Change;
Other versions of this item:
- Essahbi Essaadi & Zied Ftiti, 2008. "The transition period before the inflation targeting policy," Post-Print halshs-00355628, HAL.
- C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-12-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2008-12-14 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2008-12-14 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2008-12-14 (Monetary Economics)
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