Fertility and birth order in Russia by regions: a pandemic impact

Analysis of fertility trends in the Russian Federation by regions and by children of different birth orders (i.e. first child in the family, second child, etc.) in 2021 is necessary because of the expected impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on birth rate in the previous year. Most births in 2021 reflect reproductive decisions made during the first and second waves of the pandemic, i.e. the period of the “first shock” caused by the spread of the new virus and restrictive measures. Studies show that there was a very strong tendency to postpone childbearing during this period resulted in the decline of birth rate in some countries comparable to the decline after the economic crisis in 2009. However, studies available suggest that the impact of the pandemic on the birth rate may vary significantly across different birth orders: in a number of Western European countries, couples having at least one child were more frequently refusing family expansion plans in the first wave of the pandemic compared to childless couples. This explains the need to consider fertility trends in 2021 separately for children of different birth orders. The need to study interregional differences is associated with a sharp imbalance of Russian regions in the severity of the epidemic process, measured in particular by such an indicator as excess mortality.