Rational Expectations and Stock Market Bubbles
AbstractThe paper is concerned with time-consistency problems caused by monetary policy in an open economy. The temptation to generate surprise inflation is shown to depend positively on the amounts of nominal debt issued by the government or issued by individuals. Private debt matters, because inflationary money growth causes redistribution between domestic residents and foreigners. A government that cares about the welfare of its residents will be tempted to inflate whenever it or its residents have issued nominal debt to foreigners. A net creditor position, however, may eliminate the time-consistency problem. For the United States, these international considerations should become increasingly relevant as the country accumulates external deficits. My estimates indicate that the incentive to inflate more than doubled between 1982 and 1988. More than two-thirds of this increase was due to higher external debt, which was largely financed in nominal terms.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research in its series Weiss Center Working Papers with number 7-91.
Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 1991
Date of revision:
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Web page: http://finance.wharton.upenn.edu/weiss/
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stock market ; prices;
Other versions of this item:
- Franklin Allen & Andrew Postlewaite, . "Rational Expectations and Stock Market Bubbles," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 7-91, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Franklin Allen & Andrew Postlewaite, . "Rational Expectations and Stock Market Bubbles," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 07-91, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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