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Simulation-Based Exact Tests in Jump-Diffusion Models in the Presence of Unidentified Nuisance Parameters: an Application to Commodity Spot Prices

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Author Info
Khalaf, L.
Saphores, J.
Bilodeau, J.F.

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Abstract

We use the Monte-Carlo (MC) test technique to find valid p-values when testing for discontinuities in jump-diffusion models. While the distribution of the LR statistic for this test is typically non-standard, we show that the MC p-value is finite sample exact if no other (identified) nuisance parameter is present. Otherwise, we derive nuisance-parameter free bounds and obtain exact bounds p-values. We illustrate our approach on four classes of jump-diffusion models we use to model spot prices of copper, nickel, golds, and crude oil. We find significant jumps in all weekly time series and in a few monthly time series.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Laval - Recherche en Energie in its series Papers with number 00-04.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:fth:lavaen:00-04

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Related research
Keywords: TESTS ; ECONOMIC MODELS;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods

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