Agglomeration, migration, and regional growth: A CGE analysis for Uganda
Abstract"Uganda has experienced rapid economic growth and poverty reduction over the past decade but has failed to significantly improve incomes in its northern regions where prolonged conflict has hindered growth. We consider three strategies to close this regional divide: (1) develop a north-south corridor to encourage regional trade, (2) accelerate growth in the southern capital city and encourage north-south migration, and (3) improve agricultural productivity in rural areas. We examine these strategies using a regionalized computable general equilibrium model, accounting for internal migration and productivity gains from urban agglomeration effects. Simulation results indicate that a north-south corridor benefits northern households, but its benefits are limited by the small size of northern urban centers and the low productivity of northern producers. Investing in the capital city accelerates economic growth but has little effect on other regions' welfare because of the city's weak growth linkages with other regions and small migration effects. Improving agricultural productivity, however, though less effective at stimulating national economic growth, generates broad-based welfare improvements in both rural and urban areas. We therefore conclude that without significant gains in agricultural productivity in the next decade, out-migration and urban-led growth centered in Kampala will be insufficient to significantly reduce poverty in northern Uganda. " from authors' abstract
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in its series IFPRI discussion papers with number 848.
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
economic growth; Poverty; Agricultural development; Spatial economics; Development strategies;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-03-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2009-03-28 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-DEV-2009-03-28 (Development)
- NEP-GEO-2009-03-28 (Economic Geography)
- NEP-URE-2009-03-28 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Wiebelt, Manfred & Pauw, Karl & Matovu, John Mary & Twimukye, Evarist & Benson, Todd, 2011.
"Managing future oil revenue in Uganda for agricultural development and poverty reduction: A CGE analysis of challenges and options,"
IFPRI discussion papers
1122, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Manfred Wiebelt & Karl Pauw & John Mary Matovu & Evarist Twimukye & Todd Benson, 2011. "Managing Future Oil Revenues in Uganda for Agricultural Development and Poverty Reduction: A CGE Analysis of Challenges and Options," Kiel Working Papers 1696, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Marcus Böhme & Clemens Breisinger & Rainer Schweickert & Manfred Wiebelt, 2010.
"Oil revenues for public investment in Africa: targeting urban or rural areas?,"
Kiel Working Papers
1623, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Manfred Wiebelt & Rainer Schweickert & Clemens Breisinger & Marcus Böhme, 2011. "Oil revenues for public investment in Africa: targeting urban or rural areas?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 147(4), pages 745-770, November.
- Ulimwengu, John & Funes, Jose & Headey, Derek & You, Liangzhi, 2009. "Paving the way for development?: The impact of transport infrastructure on agricultural production and poverty reduction in the Democratic Republic of Congo," IFPRI discussion papers 944, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.