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Working Paper 03-20 - Modelling fertility for national population projections - The case of Belgium
[Working Paper 03-20 - Modélisation de la fécondité dans les projections de population – Le cas de la Belgique]

Author

Listed:
  • Marie Vandresse

Abstract

This Working Paper presents the methodology that has been applied since 2020 in the model used to draw up the population outlook for Belgium. The methodology considers that fertility is explained by both structural (education, labour market participation, etc.) and cyclical factors (the economic cycle, etc.). Those factors are taken into account through three elements: (1) expert opinion on long-term fertility trends, (2) an explicit trend in the fertility schedule and (3) the effect of cyclical and structural determinants of fertility using an error-correction model.

Suggested Citation

  • Marie Vandresse, 2020. "Working Paper 03-20 - Modelling fertility for national population projections - The case of Belgium [Working Paper 03-20 - Modélisation de la fécondité dans les projections de population – Le ," Working Papers 202003, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.
    • Handle: RePEc:fpb:wpaper:202003
    as

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    File URL: https://www.plan.be/uploaded/documents/202010091627550.WP_2003_FERTILITY_12220.pdf
    File Function: english version
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demography; population projections;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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